Wednesday, 15 January 2014

All the Pretty Horses; those Oscar nominations

My two biggest claims to Oscar prediction is getting the 2008 line-up correct (no Oscar for you The Dark Knight) and the 2012 makeup lineup (sorry, Lincoln). Other than that, I have no business making Oscar predictions something I readily admit since I take more pride in subversive picks - like Ewan McGregor in The Impossible or Michael Shannon in Take Shelter - than predictive guesses which is what most prognostication comes down to. Still,  Oscar loving Shane invited me to his Prediction game and I had to acquiesce because prediction is fun, even if I'm terrible at it.

“Let it Go” / Frozen
“Young and Beautiful” / The Great Gatsby
“I See Fire” / The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smuag
“Ordinary Love” / Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Unfinished Songs” / Unfinished Songs

Most people have a single "no-guts-no-glory" choice, I feel I have one in every category. I'm predicting "Unfinished Songs" essentially on the basis of it being written by Diane Warren which is about as specious as one can get with these things, but sometimes I do silly things. And, I'd wager that no one will predict the five nominees the Academy does end up with, anyhow. So, I'll be wrong no matter what I predict.

12 Years a Slave / Hans Zimmer
Captain Phillips / Henry Jackman
Gravity / Steven Price
Philomena / Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr Banks / Thomas Newman

I am significantly ill-at-ease with this slate of nominees but I'm finding this category to be a real headscratcher. I'm opting against Golden Globe winning All is Lost and Globe nominated Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom and this entire slate looks so unexciting to me, but who really knows at this point.

The Great Gatsby
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

If Lincoln could not make it in last year, maybe American Hustle won't either? At least that's how I see it. The Great Gatsby gets my requisite "pretty-use-of-hair-and-makeup" and the other bets seem fairly safe to me. Look for none of them to be nominated tomorrow....

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim
World War Z

Logically, I feel it will be either The Lone Ranger or World War Z, so predicting them both may be foolish. The voters have the options of latching on to bigger money-makers or block-busters with more obtrusive effects. I almost chose Elysium and Star Trek Into Darkness over both, but I'll hold on to my unusual choices.

Ernest and Celestine
A Letter to Momo
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

Will the animated branch nominate three films not in the English language? Oh, Andrew you fool...

The Act of Killing
God Loves Uganda
The Square
Stories We Tell

Too weak to predict an omission for Stories We Tell...

The Broken Circle Down
The Grandmaster
The Great Beauty
Two Lives
....but foolhardy enough to predict an omission of The Hunt.

.....more unusual predictions below....

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Invisible Woman

The only reason I'm predicting Catching Fire is because I don't think Saving Mr Banks will be nominated, but I can't think of anything to legitimately replace both. Even thought everyone is predicting Saving Mr Banks. I am so terrible at this...

All is Lost
Iron Man 3
Lone Survivor

Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
World War Z

I am, however, fairly confident in my sound nominees barring a sound mixing slate which edges into the Picture ballot more than I anticipate.

American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Saving Mr Banks

Gravity can't be nominated everywhere, can it? And yet....

12 Years a Slave / Sean Bobbitt
Gravity / Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis / Bruno Delbonne
Prisoners / Roger Deakins
Rush / Dod Mantle
I have no legs to stand on re Rush, but here it remains. (I might do better to predict Nebraska here but I'm erring on the side of hopefulness, although I'm similarly doubtful of Prisoners but I imprudently did not predict Skyfall here last year...)

12 Years a Slave / John Ridley
Before Midnight  / Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips / Billy Ray
Philomena / Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street / Terence Winter

American Hustle / David O Russell
Blue Jasmine / Woody Allen
Her / Spike Jonze
Inside Llewyn Davis / Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Nebraska / Bob Nelson

There is a part of me certain that Blue Jasmine will go the way of Vicky Cristina Barcelona with no writing nomination, but what replaces it?

12 Years a Slave / Joe Walker
Captain Phillips / Christopher Rouse
Gravity / Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
Rush / Daniel P Hanley & Mike Hill
The Wolf of Wall Street / Thelma Schoonmaker

12 Years a Slave / Steve McQueen
American Hustle / David O. Russell
Captain Phillips / Paul Greengass
Gravity / Alfonso Cuaron
The Wolf of Wall Street / Martin Scorsese

Last year I predicted the same things for both these categories, this time I went with a too safe director ballot and an outlandish editing one (no American Hustle?)

Sally Hawkins / Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence / American Hustle
Lupita Nyongo / 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts / August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey / Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Barkhad Abdi / Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl / Rush
Michael Fassbender / 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill / The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto / Dallas Buyers Club

I almost predicted Winfrey missing out, or Forte in. But, I'm going on my hunch that Nebraska under-performs even as I don't think Hill will make it, but I don't think Gandolfini will either. And logic supports Cooper but I'm bullish on the nomination itself which leaves me with this lot.

Cate Blanchett / Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock / Gravity
Judi Dench / Philomena
Meryl Streep / August: Osage County
Emma Thompson / Saving Mr Banks

Bruce Dern / Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio / The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor / 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks / Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey / Dallas Buyers Club

I say DiCaprio and Adams can't both make it and so go with DiCaprio making it but no Adams. It could just as easily go the other way.

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
The Coen's melancholy quasi-musical makes it in....

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