Wednesday, 9 January 2013

All the pretty horses; or, Oscar Predictions….all of them

I swear, the only reason I bothered to resuscitate my Oscar prognostication which was at death’s door was because the swell Shane (Film Actually) asked me to take part in his Oscar prediction competition. And, I love a good competition – even I’m bound to lose. Hell, I love Oscar prediction even if my predictions often veer into dreamscape.

I’ll discuss the various categories in detail when the actual nominations are announced – I’ve already discussed a few over the past week. So, final predictions…here we go.

“Learn me Right” / Brave
 “Freedom” / Django Unchained
“Strange Love” / Frankenweenie
“Suddenly” / Les Misérables
“Skyfall” / Skyfall

Can we ever really predict the original song category? They love to shock us. But, at least we know that there shall be five nominees since that silliness is done with. Me? I love this category, music is a passion and there are so many great options to choose from…which is why I sort of immediately feel worried because I’ll admit the “Strange Love” inclusion has more to do with my love than me actually thinking it will end up there. And, yet, despite it being an end-credits song it’s so in touch with the weird, funny, spookiness of the film it would be so easy to see how the voters could latch on to something as delightful as it. Elsewhere some things seem assured like Les Mis and Skyfall and I feel Brave makes sense. Even though the predicted song of Django Unchained is my least favourite of the four it feels realistic given the vocal of the eponymous Django on it. I’m not buying “Pi’s Lullaby” both for stodgy foolhardy reasons and because I think of “Couer Volant” from Hugo last year (which was the superior song, but operated in the same vein) which didn’t earn a nod. We’ll see….

Argo/ Alexanre Desplat  
Anna Karenina / Dario Marianelli  
Cloud Atlas / Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek  
Life of Pi / Mychel Danna  
Lincoln / John Williams

What of Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Master? Honestly, I keep vacillating on this group because it’s tough to keep personal feelings out. For one, Desplat was not remembered last year for a much stronger collective year and feels…odd that it would Argo he gets that nomination for this time around, and yet – it pops up everywhere. Williams and Danna seem to be more locks than not, and I feel – surely, they won’t forget past winner Marianelli doing his best work in a film which loves his music as much. And the same goes for Cloud Atlas in many ways, the film is the music…but that does mean it’s in? I say yes.

The Hobbit  
Les Misérables

I don’t have to worry about Snow White and the Huntsman, do I? Please, tell me I don’t. In some ways perhaps Lincoln would make sense but I don’t predict it going for fourteen nominations or whatnot, and even as the work in Hitchcock is specious at times I don’t see it not making the cut. So, maybe Les Mis over Lincoln is unwise, but I’m more confident there. I suppose the only real lock is The Hobbit.

The Avengers  
The Hobbit  
John Carter  
Life of Pi  

Sometimes I just like to pick something silly just in case, and John Carter is that pick. Not that the film itself is silly, I prefer it to all three superhero films in the shortlist, but I know it’s not a seemingly wise prediction. I’ll trudge on. I could see this playing out like my short list, or just two being right. It would be something if The Dark Knight Rises ends up getting no nominations here, but I predict that happening nonetheless.

The Painting  

The Gatekeepers  
How to Survive a Plague  
The House I Live In  
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

 Amour / Austria  
The Intouchables / France  
No / Chile
A Royal Affair Denmark
War Witch / Canada

I tend to go with my weird gut causes on the foreign and documentary categories, where sometimes I’m right and sometimes I’m wrong. There’s really no sense in making a legitimate case for justification on my part.

....more potential loopy predictions below the jump...

 Anna Karenina / Jacqueline Durran
Django Unchained / Sharen Davis  
Cloud Atlas / Kym Barrett; Pierre Yves-Gayraud  
Mirror Mirror / Eiko Ishioka
Les Misérables / Paco Delgado

I really think that Sharen Davis’ work on Django Unchained is likely but I really didn’t know who to boot so I ended up nixing the choice I added last - Lincoln. And wisdom would say that the Cloud Atlas team is out, but I just feel that it’s in – which leaves me with that lot. And really, why would the picture hopeful Lincoln NOT earn a nomination? But, then why would the sumptuousness of Mirror Mirror and the time travelling of Cloud Atlas not get a mention? But, then wouldn’t they go for their love for Atwood and remember Snow White and the Huntsman. And, I keep getting headaches from my over-thinking, so I just stop.

 The Avengers 
The Dark Knight Rises 
The Hobbit 
Life of Pi 
Zero Dark Thirty

 Django Unchained 
The Hobbit 
Life of Pi  
Les Misérables 

Every year we scratch our heads to remember which is which…and there are so many rich options that I just know won’t get remembered (hey, Anna Karenina, Looper, Frankenweenie). Speaking of the latter – I feel like there’s no space for any animated films this year, and waver on what gets in both places and what doesn’t. Will they go for The Hobbit or for Django?

 Anna Karenina / Sarah Greenwood  
Cloud Atlas / Hugh Bateup, Uli Hanisch
The Hobbit / Dan Hennah  
Lincoln / Rick Carter
Les Misérables / Eve Stewart

As I opined before, I just can’t see Hennah getting snubbed and I can’t imagine that the time travelling work from Cloud Atlas will be forgotten which leaves me with three solid options that seem obvious. Right?

 Anna Karenina / Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained / Robert Richardson  
Lincoln / Janusz Kaminski
Life of Pi / Claudio Miranda  
Les Misérables / Danny Cohen
I waver heavily on this lot, I ended up changing my earlier citations for Skyfall and The Master and leaving out the former is particularly foolhardy but I’m going on this hunch….

 Argo / Chris Terrio  
Life of Pi / David Magee  
Lincoln / Tony Kushner
The Sessions / Ben Levin  
Silver Linings Playbook / David O. Russell

 Django Unchained / Quentin Tarantino  
Looper / Rian Johnson  
The Master / Paul Thomas Anderson  
Moonrise Kingdom / Wes Anderson  
Zero Dark Thirty / Mark Boal

 Argo / William Goldenberg
Life of Pi / Tim Squyres  
Lincoln / Michael Kahn
Les Misérables / Chris Dickens  
Zero Dark Thirty / Dylan Tichenor, William Goldenberg

 Argo / Ben Affleck  
Life of Pi / Ang Lee  
Lincoln / Steven Spielberg
 Les Misérables / Tom Hooper  
Zero Dark Thirty / Kathryn Bigelow

I decided to just bite the bullet and predict the same in both categories. I’ll take my knocks wherever I get them.

 Amy Adams / The Master
Sally Field / Lincoln
Anne Hathaway / Les Misérables
Helen Hunt / The Sessions
Nicole Kidman / The Paperboy

 Alan Arkin / Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio / Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman / The Master
Tommy Lee Jones / Lincoln
Ewan McGregor / The Impossible

I decided to go with my gut and scratch out DeNiro, and although it looks like both DiCaprio and McGregor are long shots at this point, I still feel there’s wisdom to support both men turning up here. Hoffman I decided to include pondering a modest showing of support for the film.

 Jessica Chastain / Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard / Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence / Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren / Hitchcock
Naomi Watts / The Impossible

 Bradley Cooper / Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis / Lincoln
John Hawkes / The Sessions
Hugh Jackman / Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix / The Master

I go for boring in both Actor and Actress, and I was thinking of including Weisz. But, then, even if Music Box promised me a nod I feel I’ve used my ridiculous choice with McGregor. And I still feel Mirren might not be so assured, and I still waver on Phoenix over Washington…but….

Django Unchained
Life of Pi  
The Master
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook  
Zero Dark Thirty

And, there goes my list. I’m sure I’ll be wrong in many, and they’ll make me sad not so much for being wrong but because some of these predictions do veer into hopes. But, where the fun in predictions if you make your own?

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