Monday, 23 January 2012

Incoherent Oscar (Final Gasps): Part Two

So, Oscar nominees are set to be announced tomorrow, and I only must add my two cents to the mass of cents floating around the interweb predicting Oscars' and whatnot. Yesterday, I posted what I believed could be the nominees in the technical and artistic categories, now I head over to the big eight, and the other categories which are just a bitch to predict...foreign language, shorts, documentary, etc.
              
As usual, the potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order, and then the alternates in terms of probability. And, these are predictions for nominees only, so no stars to indicate potential winners....a whole lot of wild choices ahead, enjoy. (Part One)
    

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
MY GUESS: The Artist (Michael Hazanavicius); Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen); Young Adult (Diablo Cody); Take Shelter (Jeff Nicholas); Win Win (Thomas McCarthy)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: A Separation (Asghar Farhadi); Bridesmaids (Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumulo); 50/50 (Will Reiser)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Beginners (Mike Mills); Rango (John Logan, Gore Verbinski et al)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
MY GUESS: The Descendants (Alexander Payne); The Help (Tate Taylor); Hugo (John Logan); The Ides of March (George Clooney and Grant Heslov); Moneyball (Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridget O'Connor and Peter Strong); Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Steven Zaillian)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Eric Roth); Albert Nobbs (Glenn Close and John Manville); War Horse (Lee Hall and Richard Curtis)

I love how random some of my choices for nominations might come off, and I'm probably going to be wrong - but I like going for these off-kilter choices for the hell of it. Still, I think that Take Shelter and The Ides of March (both uncertain guesses in the screenplay categories) are films that we could see surprising with a few nominations, hence my inclusion of both of them here. The majority of the original screenplay category is something of a toss-up, though, and it would seem that both 50/50 and Bridesmaids are likely choices for consideration but I'm feeling Win Win and the aforementioned Take Shelter more. It would be the sort of ironic occurrence for Win Win, the most tepidly received of McCarthy's features to be the one to net him the nomination.

ANIMATED FEATURE
MY GUESSThe Adventures of Tintin; Happy Feet Two; Kung Fu Panda 2; Puss in Boots; Rango

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Winnie the Pooh; Arthur Christmas; Chico and Rita

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Cars 2; Gnomeo and Juliet

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
MY GUESS: Hell and Back Again; If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front; Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory; Pina; We Were Here

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Project Nim; Semper Fi: Always Faithful; Under Fire: Journalists in Combat; The Loving Story 


MORE POSSIBILITIES: Sing Your Song; Battle for Brooklyn

FOREIGN FEATURE
MY GUESS: Footnote; Omar Killed Me; Pina; A Separation; SuperClásico

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: In Darkness; Monsieur Lahzar; Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale; Bullhead

ANIMATED SHORT

MY GUESS: Dimanche/Sunday; The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr Morris Lessmore; Luminaris; Magic Piano; Wild Life

THEN AGAIN PERHAPS: La Luna; I Tawt I Saw a Puddy Tat; Specky Four Eyes

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Paths of Hate; A Morning Stroll

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

MY GUESS: The Barber of Birmingham; God is the Bigger Elvis; Incident in New Baghdad; Saving Face; The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypt's Unfinished Revolution; Witness; Pipe Dreams

LIVE ACTION SHORT
MY GUESS: Je Pourrais Être Votre Grand-Mère; Love at First Sight; Pentecost; The Road Home; The Shore

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Tuba Atlantic; The Roar of the Sea;

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Raju; Sailcoth; Timefreak

Everything from animated straight down to the shorts are wild guesses for me, and that's probably where I'll be shockingly accurate or potentially all wrong. But, what's the fun in predicting if you don't predict everything?


SUPPORTING ACTOR
MY GUESS: Kenneth Branagh in My week with Marilyn; Albert Brooks in Drive; Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Ides of March; Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method; Christopher Plummer in Beginners

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Jonah Hill in Moneyball; Armie Hammer in J. Edgar; Nick Nolte in Warrior

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Ben Kingsley in Hugo; Patton Oswalt in Young Adult; Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close



Admit it, you're secretly happy about my outlandish choices because you can always say to yourself - at least I'm getting more right than someone... But, there you go. As I said, I think that The Ides of March is going to make a late (re?)-surge which could see perennial Oscar favourite Philip Seymour Hoffman benefiting from it all, and I continue to hold on to Viggo Mortensen. And, the thing is, I think that Moneyball might be one of those films assured of a nomination which ends up stumbling landing hill in jeopardy, and I still am not completely certain that Nolte's chances of being remembered are as sure as everyone else seem to think.
          
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
MY GUESS: Bérénice Bejo in The Artist; Jessica Chastain in The Help; Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer in The Help; Shailene Woodley in The Descendants


THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Jessica Chastain in Take Shelter; Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus; Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Carey Mulligan in Shame; Sandra Bullock in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

I wish I had the guts to predict Chastain for Take Shelter, but I suppose my choices are crazy enough on their own leaving McCarthy (SAG and BAFTA nominee) off my list...but there you go, I live dangerously.


LEAD ACTOR

MY GUESS: George Clooney in The Descendants; Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar; Jean Dujardin in The Artist; Brad Pitt in Moneyball; Michael Shannon in Take Shelter

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March; Michael Fassbender in Shame; Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Demian Bichir in A Better Life;

I really wanted to switch Gosling for DiCaprio, but it came down to the fact that even though Gosling was only recently forgotten DiCaprio's last chance at what should have been a nomination was in 08, and he's a bigger star, and formerly ubiquitous, and in an Eastwood biopic which they seem to love. As I established, I think Take Shelter could surprise, which means that Shannon shows up. 

LEAD ACTRESS
MY GUESS: Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis in The Help; Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady; Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin; Michelle Williams in My week with Marilyn

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Charlize Theron in Young Adult; Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia

This race seems rather standard to me, and I suspect that even if my predictions are wrong elsewhere this will be the single race which sees itself coming in the same as the SAG awards. I really can't see anyone of the predicted five losing their spots, and I almost definitely cannot see any of the two below being lucky, because even if I think The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will benefit from some technical love, it's too late for Rooney to break into this already sealed race.

DIRECTOR
MY GUESS: George Clooney in The Ides of March; Michael Hanazavicius for The Artist; Alexander Payne for The Descendants; Martin Scorsese for Hugo; Tate Taylor for The Help

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris; David Fincher for The Girl with Dragon Tattoo; Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Bennett Miller for Moneyball; Steven Spielberg for War Horse; Stephen Daldry for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Yup, Clooney. Good lord, I'm crazy? But, if it's really his year, why wouldn't the Oscars remember him? And even though I think his direction is the least impressive aspect of The Ides of March which I liked very much, I think it's a logical choice. And, yes, a Woody snub despite the DGA support which in immediate retrospect is a bit crazy, and probably means I'm wrong...but really, who cares if I'm wrong. Oh, yes, and Tate Taylor makes it in, too.

PICTURE
MY GUESS: The Artist; The Descendants; The Help; Hugo; Midnight in Paris; The Ides of March

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Moneyball; War Horse; A Separation

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Drive; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

No Moneyball. That's it, really. I feel that there will be six, so even though I think that Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will be get a slew of #1 votes I had to drop something and I anticipate that Midnight in Paris will be - marginally - more successful with the populace.

For those interested in even more silliness - The Artist and Hugo tie for the most nominations with 11 each, followed by The Help with 7, The Ides of March and The Descendants with 6 each and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows with 5, then The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Albert Nobbs (WTF, Andrew?), Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (WTF, Andrew, again) with 4 a piece. These sound like statistics from a mad man's brain, which I think make them strong possibilities.

Really, it's just tossing pennies in a well. Chances are, you're probably churning out your own list of potential nominees. Are you going for each category like I? How crazy do you think the chances of surge for The Ides of March and major snubs for Moneyball are? What Oscar hunches have you got?

2 comments:

Amir said...

Curious to see you, of all people, didn't predict Winnie the Pooh. But I know it'll make you happy so here's hoping...

Walter L. Hollmann said...

I've been saying and saying that Ides will probably get in over Moneyball. In the end, I predicted seven nominees, including both. But you...you're going for it. I wish I had your courage. The only thing that seems truly crazy is Clooney for Director...but who knows with the Oscars?

ONE MORE HOUR!!!