Sunday, 22 January 2012

Incoherent Oscar (Final Gasps): Part One

Should I even be doing this? Of course I should, I’ve been intermittently devoting imaginary ink to Oscar prognosticating for months, it’s only fair that I toss out some final predictions, even though I’m almost certain to be wrong and even though I don’t even mind the certainty of being wrong. It’s all about the…umm…fun? Er, final predictions ahead.

NOTE: As usual the five nominees I project to get mentioned are listed alphabetically; the potential spoilers are listed in terms of probability. No stars in this entry, though, I'm predicting nominees only...not potential winners.

MY GUESS: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides; Hugo; Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Super 8; Transformers: Dark of the Moon

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II; Rango; Captain America: The First Avenger; The Adventures of Tintin; War Horse

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Hanna; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Fast Five; Drive

MY GUESS: The Artist; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II; Hugo; Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Drive; Hanna; War Horse; Transformers; Super 8

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol; The Tree of Life; Rise of the Planet of the Apes

I have a strangely fun time predicting the sound nominees, because they’re so difficult to read – for me at least – and every now and then they’ll throw a complete curveball and delight me with an inclusion like Wanted or Salt (both of them Angelina Jolie movies, I know, I’m easy). And, it’s not that I don’t put credence in the CAS nominees, but precursors are never actually the real thing and the voters will vote for who they wish, end of story. But, who will that be? I just moved Harry Potter off the sound editing list, even though in retrospect it’d probably be a more likely nominee there than in sound mixing where I have it now, and who’s to say that Drive won’t show up? And who’s to say that Transformers will? The last one didn’t. Do I mind if I am completely wrong on Tuesday? Considering that I expect to be wrong, I don’t mind.

MY GUESS: “Lay Your Head Down” (Albert Nobbs; “Star Spangled Man” (Captain America); “Hello, Hello” (Gnomeo and Juliet); “Life’s a Happy Song” (The Muppets)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: “The Living Proof” (The Help); “Coeur Volant” (Hugo); “Pictures in my Head” (The Muppets)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: “Bridge of Light” (Happy Feet Two); “Think You Can Win” (Win Win); “The Keeper” (Machine Gun Preacher; “Man or Muppet” (The Muppets)

MY GUESS: The Artist (Ludovic Bource); Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor); The Ides of March (Alexandre Desplat); Hugo (Howard Shore); War Horse (John Williams)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II (Alexandre Desplat); Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alberto Iglesias); Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Alexandre Desplat)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: W.E. (Abel Korzeniowski); The Skin I Live (Albert Iglesias); The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams)

The music branch often gets me unncessaily incensed, and I sort of feel like I’m being a bit silly having Desplat here although I had him in for another film an hour ago. But, then, I realised I had Harry Potter slated for EIGHT nominations in my first draft – and that’s just ridiculous (almost as ridiculous as me having four drafts of Oscar predictions, but not quite). Anyhow, I’m predicting four for song, withAlbert Nobbs being the one to leave if its three, but I feel like people will want to honour Glenn with a nod because she’s probably not going to be winning.

Am I underestimating the Muppet love? Likely.

MY GUESS: Albert Nobbs; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II; The Iron Lady

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life; Hugo

MORE POSSIBILITIES: The Artist; Anonymous

MY GUESS: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II; Hugo; Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides; Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Transformers: Dark of the Moon

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Captain America: The First Avenger; Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

MORE POSSIBILITIES: The Tree of Life; X-Men: First Class; Real Steel

Both these categories have shortlisted potential nominees, but the makeup one for me us most difficult category to predict. We have seven potential nominees shortlisted, and I could see any of them being nominated and winning because this category is always very, very weird for me. Am I completely at ease with these picks? Hell no. But….Eh.

Yes, I see Harry Potter showing up in both instances, even though it’s probably not assured a nomination in either. I also don’t see The Tree of Life surprising and making it in. And, why does it seem like everyone is underestimating Pirates of the Caribbean? Or am I overestimating it?

MY GUESS: Anonymous (Lissy Christl); The Artist (Mark Bridges); The Help (Sharen Davis); Hugo (Sandy Powell); Jane Eyre (Michael O’Connor)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Jacqueline Duran); Immortals (Eiko Isioka); W.E. (Arianne Phillips); Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Penny Rose)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: My Week with Marilyn (Jill Tayor)

It ties with cinematography for my favourite technical category. I’m sort of stumped, though. It seems easy, and then it doesn’t. I like this quintet, though, they all seem likely to me and no matter what the Guilds say no W.E. will not get a nomination, even though I sort of want it to, just because.

MY GUESS: The Artist (Laurence Bennet, Austin Buchinsky and Robert Gould); Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II (Stuart Craig); Hugo (Dante Ferretti); Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (John Myhre); Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Marka Ricker and Rena DeAngelo)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Anonymous (Sebastian Krawinkel); The Help (Marka Ricker and Rena DeAngelo)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Jane Eyre (Karl Probert); A Dangerous Method (James McAteer); Captain America: The First Avenger (Rick Heinrichs)

MY GUESS: The Artist (Guillame Schiffman); Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Crenoweth); Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Eduardo Serra); Hugo (Robert Richardson); The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Hoyte van Hotyema); War Horse (Janusz Kaminski)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Drive (Newton Thomas Siegel); Melancholia (Manuel Albert Caro)

I find that these two tend to overlap, and I was tempted to include Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy in both instances, but I can’t find space for it in cinematography even though actual logic would suggest it’s assured of a nod there more likely than my WTF pick Harry Potter. I’m really being a bit silly with the Potter love, I suppose, but then I really could see all these nominations for it panning out and though I’m perhaps being a bit silly in not including Hotema and Kaminski, but give me my gutsy choices.

MY GUESS: The Artist (Anne Sophia Bion); The Descendants (Kevin Trent); Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter and Anne Wall); Hugo (Thelma Schoonmaker); The Ides of March (Stephen Mirrione)

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Moneyball (Christopher Tellefsen); War Horse (Michael Kahn)

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Yup, I’m predicting a surprise inclusion of The Ides of March at the expense of Moneyball which is perhaps the silliest of my decisions here, but it’s another one those unlikely to pan out hunches. And, I sort of want to move up Tinker Tailor, but then I’m not too sure how it’ll pan out. I feel that we’re in for some surprises but where? And from which films?
For those keeping check it’s Hugo with 8, The Artist with 6, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows with 5 and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides with 4 (Andrew, you fool!)
Tomorrow I’ll publish the predictions for the last eight categories. What do you think of my thoughts on the technical nominees? How absurd are my hunches? Or does the absurdity make them realistic surprises?


Castor said...

Nice set of prediction Andrew. I would definitely love to see Desplat getting a nod for his Harry Potter soundtrack rather than the one for Ides of March. I love what he has done with the last couple HP movies.

Walter L. Hollmann said...

Lord I hope Ides of March makes it in. I think, given the franchise's success with craft noms and the farewell tour, you've got the right amount of estimation for Harry Potter. Biggest surprise: Pirates in Art Direction. hm.....

"I find that these two tend to overlap..."

Quote from ASC member in a cinematography workshop I took: "Your best ally on set. Anyone know? It's not the AC, it's not the director; it's the Art Team. You're the guys deciding the look of the film." So, well done.

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

walter it's such an obvious overlap, though. oftentimes i'm not sure if i should credit the production design or the phtoography. a key example, the work on tinker tailor soldier spy the meticulousness and seamlessness between the two is so strong.

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