Saturday, 10 December 2011

Incoherent Oscar: Supporting Actress

I am no soothsayer, and I do not observe the potential field with a mind full of logic. What I do do is make some rambling observations on the field. Predictions ahead...

MY GUESS: Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs; Carey Mulligan in Shame; Vanessa Redgrave in CoriolanusOctavia Spencer in The Help; Shailene Woodley in The Descendants

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Jessica Chastain in The Help; Sandra Bullock in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Bérénice Bejo in The Artist; Jessica Chastain in Take Shelter

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Evan Rachel Wood in The Ides of March; Kate Winslet in Carnage; Judy Greer in The Descendants; Emily Watson in War Horse

Oftentimes the supporting women end up being particularly difficult to predict just because there are so many of them. As usual, I keep thinking that the obvious contenders – or some of them at the very least – won’t end up being nominated. What’s my reason for this? Nothing significant, really, it’s just my usual improvable thoughts which sometimes work out and sometimes doesn’t. On that you’ll notice that Bérénice Bejo is absent from my predicted ballot. And, maybe it’s because I haven’t seen The Artist so I’m unable to understand the effusive burst of predictive support for this performance, or maybe it’s because I still don’t think that The Artist exists as such a definitive threat for the Best Picture prize.

Of the predicted five, Octavia Spencer is by far considered to be frontrunner of it all, and like virtually every category this year – at the moment – I feel like it’s not a plausible selection even though here I am predicting it to happen. Octavia’s work is good, even though I think Jessica Chastain outshines her. Logistically, everyone else in my five could probably NOT get nominated, but I doubt. Sure, it seems like Coriolanus has only been seen by critics and sure it seems like they’ve forgotten about the movie but for Vanessa’s performance...but sometimes they tend to see one thing in a film (even Christopher Plummer in the supporting actor category is facing the same dilemma) so I don’t think it should hurt her. Now, Woodley is someone I think could easily get booted and I am neither here nor there on her NBR win...I don’t think the NBR is interested in predicative choosing of their winners. But, I do think that The Descendants could still turn into a significant threat in the Picture category which is why I am ultimately keeping Woodley in mind. Now, Mulligan is another iffy choice considering the fact that her film has that NC-17 rating and doesn’t seem likely to woo the entire AMPAS. But, remember Carey has a nod, and since that nod she’s been acting with a whole lot actors I just feel like this is a chance that the voters will not pass up. And, then, there is McTeer the most uncertain of the five. I can’t explain specifically why she is in my five, but I have a feeling that Albert Nobbs may surprise with a few nominations.

I have more faith in Jessica Chastain entering the race than Bejo, and she was in my top 5 about five minutes ago. It’s impossible to root against her Celia in The Help and it is a fine performance. Meanwhile, I have a feeling that if Sandra Bullock is even serviceable in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close voters will latch on to it, just to say “aha we told you Sandy could act” and there’ always the chance that this film turns into a surprising BP contender. Time will tell. December isn’t even half way, though, and I think that there’s a big chance that someone will come out and surprise us by entering the race. I have this feeling that we haven’t heard the last of Evan Rachel Wood, but I could very well be wrong.

Is Octavia going to steamroll everyone and take it all? I’m not so sure, but it seems likely.


dinasztie said...

I think you should add Melissa McCarthy to at least Then Again, Perhaps.

I think/hope the nominees will be:
Chastain/ McCarthy/ Redgrave/ Spencer/ Woodley

I feel that either Jessica Chastain or Octavia will win the Oscar. Melissa can also win, if she manages the nomination (which will be the hardest for her), she can become the next Marisa Tomei. :)

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

daniel it was both an oversight and disbelief me leaving her off. i think melissa is fine, and easily the best in show in her film but i'm scratching my head at the effusive praise. still, she IS better than some of the "real" contenders, so we'll see.

Luke said...

So I suppose this may've adjusted since the SAG announcement - are we actually seeing an awards season era where last-minute entries are scoffed at, and earlier releases are hoisted above? Even though I'm sure plenty of these late-December releases will be fine films, as someone who has trouble seeing all of them pre-Oscar because of their inaccessibility, I'm kind of a fan of this notion.

Do you think Extremely Loud and Girl with the Dragon have completely obliterated their chances at Oscar glory? I guess maybe tomorrow's announcement will give us an idea.

Excellent write-up regardless! :)