Monday, 5 December 2011

Incoherent Oscar: Screenplays

Rambling conversations on the potential Oscar nominees...
        
In theory, they are not that tricky to predict but I always double think them because sometimes the nominees are as boring as just choosing all the major contenders for Best Picture unless when they’re not boring at all and there are some surprising inclusions and some surprising snubs. What will this year turn out to be like? I’m not sure, because, to be honest I’m not even certain what the assured nominated films will be in the top categories. But, here I go – potential incoherence as always.
      
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
MY GUESS: The Descendants; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Hugo; Moneyball; War Horse

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; The Ides of March; Albert Nobbs; The Help

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Carnage; The Adventures of Tintin

I am particularly uncertain about the nominees for this category. Oftentimes there is one obvious frontrunner for this prize and the other nominees just seem to fall in place, but I’m unable to discern an out-and-out frontrunner unless it be The Descendants which I keep getting the feeling will turn into an Up in the Air scenario. Not so much because they both had George Clooney (and in all fairness, I have not seen The Descendants) but because they both seem like male-driven dramas which start off with a lot of steam, but end up petering down to an also ran. On the other hand, I’m not as assured in the chances of Moneyball, regardless of the team up of Sorkin and Pitt. And, neither Hugo nor War Horse seem like screenplay driven fare which leaves Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close which could still end up turning into a flop.

Below the belt we’ve got The Ides of March and despite a citation in the NBR top 10, I feel like that film’s chances have sailed and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is still unproven. The thing is, though, a nomination for either wouldn't be completely shocking and the same goes for The Help, which I think is not really in the battle for screenplay but then seems like a nomination that could end up being just up their alley. This is more difficult than I anticipated...


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
MY GUESS: The Artist; Midnight in Paris; Rango; Take Shelter; Young Adult

THEN AGAIN, PERHAPS: Martha Marcy May Marlene; Shame; Tree of Life; Beginners

MORE POSSIBILITIES: Bridesmaids; Melancholia; J. Edgar; Rampart; A Separation

Rango is my wildcard shot here. It’s a bit foolish, I would admit, but then there’s always that unsurprising surprise which turns up here and considering that I feel Rango might end up topping the animated category it might not be too unlikely. Maybe. It seems like The Artist emerges by default because I’m thinking that Midnight in Paris may not be as successful as we’re anticipating and I think that it’s unlikely that they’re ready to reward Diablo Cody again...so soon. I suppose, too, that Take Shelter in place of Martha Marcy May Marlene AND Tree of Life is odd, but I just keep thinking that that film will surprise with a few nominations. If Olsen does get nominated I could see the former getting some love, but I don’t see Tree of Life getting a big chance here. I don't see Bridesmaids being the surprise nominee, either. Perhaps it's because I liked but did not love the film, but I don't buy any awards' buzz for it.
              
Coming Soon: Best Actress / Previously: Best Actor
         
Which writers do you expect AMPAS to go batty for this year?

4 comments:

Univarn said...

I'm with you on Rango for animation but I'm not sure it'll win big time awards consideration. Across the board the animation sector has been pretty weak this year and I think that's going to be reflected in a general lack of Oscar love for animated movies this year.

Though Rango and Midnight in Paris both suffer the early year movie syndrome, I think Midnight in Paris has tracked and held momentum long enough to garner a nod. Besides, Hollywood loves to give Woody Allen best screenplay nominations. Beginners might take that fifth spot as the obligatory indie film that won't get any other nominations.

Jose said...

have you seen all that recognition that 50/50 is getting? I particularly think it's bullshit, because the writing is particularly lazy in that movie (let's make Seth Rogen curse...) but somehow all the critics are in love with the screenplay and in all honesty if cancer doesn't get you an Oscar nothing will.
With that said, I will cut a bitch if this thing wins of Woody Allen, Bridesmaids and MMMM.

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

univarn i'd love for beginners to nab that fifth spot...but i feel it won't. even though i'm predicting him as the winner, i wouldn't be completely shocked if plummer doesn't even get nominated.

jose i don't get the love for 50/50 screenplays. so weird.

Amir said...

Man I'd pay money to see A Separation nomianted. Sadly, it already looks extremely unlikely since even the critics are not rallying behind it. It's already relegated to the Foreign film ghetto.