Sunday, 27 February 2011

Oscar Talk: Because I Can (Final Oscar Predictions)

I didn't even realise that I went this crazy with talking Oscar this past season (all entries), it implicitly suggests that I was invested in the season - which I wasn't, but ah well. I do feel the slightest bit saddened that the season is over. Oscar's like one of those friends you can't stand to talk to often, but you'd implode if they died. So, ahoy - final final predictions.
       
Picture: The King’s Speech
Director: David Fincher for The Social Network
To tell you the truth, I wish I had the guts to predict The King’s Speech for both honours – but I’m hoping me not predict it will somehow make it not happen. Not because I’d mind Hooper winning that much (I won’t) – but I could only fathom the uproar that will occur if he does win the Oscar. And, I like the guy – don’t want him mauled. Either way, though, I’m fine. Both films and directors would appear somewhere in my top 10 – so I don’t mind what happens either way. (I’m still hoping for a delicious upset via The Kids Are All Right, but yeah, I’m fine either way.)
          
Actor: Colin Firth in The King’s Speech (alternate Javier Bardem in Biutiful)
Actress: Natalie Portman in Black Swan (Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
So, Colin and Natalie? Je ne sais pas. It’s a tossup (in my head at least) for the acting race – but I’m willing expect my favourite to lose. Now that I look at it, though, I want Annette to win even more (apparently it IS possible). Remember she and Colin were in Valmont way back when. Wouldn’t it be nice to see them win Oscars together?

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale in The Fighter (Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech)
Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech (Alternate: Melissa Leo in The Fighter)
So, will HBC finally reach the podium 18 – or is it 13 – years after she deserved to? It depends on who you’re talking to pinpoint the precise year she deserved it, but she has before. Not for her Queen Mother, but do I care? No. I could be wrong, perhaps me wanting it means it won’t happen, but I’m sticking to that prediction. And, I suppose a Bale win is inevitable – which is fine. That pipedream for Ruffalo died long ago (though, I’ll admit I’m still pretending he’s winning in my head).

Original Screenplay: David Seidler for The King’s Speech (Alternate: Christopher Nolan for Inception)
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network (Alternate: Michael Arndt, Jon Lasseter et al for Toy Story III
People are still predicting an Inception upset – which I swear would make me so infuriated I’m actually worried it’ll happen now. Look, fine I’m not a big Inception fan – but there’s such a colossal difference between originality and writing. The award seems skewed because it says “original writing” and not “screenplay from material previously unpublished”. Ah well, we’ll see what happens... I say it’ll be the two frontrunners for the Picture category with Sorkin and Seidler triumphing. And, since Cholodenko has no luck – I’m fine with these two choices.

Art Direction: The King’s Speech (Alternate: Inception)
Makeup: Barney’s Version (Alternate: The Wolfman)
Costume Design: Colleen Atwood for Alice in Wonderland (Alternate: Jenny Beavan for The King’s Speech
Now that I think of it, Art Direction could be a huge toss-up. Sure, The King’s Speech and Inception seem like the frontrunners – but there’s no telling how voters will respond to the obtrusiveness of Alice in Wonderland, and I sort of don’t see True Grit going home empty handed either. Aaargh, then there’s makeup which I’m really just guessing about – and them, Costume Design where I want Colleen to win because she’s the best and I want her to get her third statue, and then there’s Beavan who was snubbed for such great work in the 90s and did such good work on The King’s Speech which I’m not-so-secretly hoping will sweep the ceremony just for the fun of it. Decisions, decisions....

Sound Editing: Inception
Sound Mixing: Inception (The King's Speech)
I decided to go two for two with Inception here, because the sound branch seemed sort of insular in choosing The Hurt Locker last year. And, though, it’s possible they just thought it deserved both – and though Inception is nowhere near frontrunner status – it’s a possibility that seems logical. Now, The King’s Speech (or more realistically True Grit) could upset in the mixing category – but I’ll say no.

Cinematography: Danny Cohen for The King’s Speech (Alternate: Wally Pfister for Inception)
Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Social Network (Tariq Anwar for The King’s Speech)
Visual Effects: Inception (Alternate: Alice in Wonderland)
Okay, I think this is the point where I’m getting ridiculous. Honestly, I can really see Cohen upsetting for photography in the same way that something like The Golden Compass upset for visuals or The Bourne Supremacy upset for sound. And, then I could see the obvious happening and Deakins winning or Pfister winning. Ugh, this is only a conundrum because I’m over-thinking it all – and I know I’m over-thinking it, but I can’t help over-thinking. This reminds me why I opted to show no interest in Oscar last year. I think the editing prize is assured, though. No? And the visual prize seems assured, but I think I’ll laugh if Alice in Wonderland (undeservedly, I’d admit) wins.

Original Score: Alexandre Desplat for The King’s Speech
Original Song: Alan Menken for “I See the Light” from Tangled
We all know how surprising the music branch can go when it comes to choosing winners (case in point: 2005, an exercise in strangeness). Will Desplat and Menken – the deserving – win? Will Zimmer and Rahman – the loud and the obvious – triumph. Will we go even crazier and reward the laidback ones like Reznor and Newman? I’m sticking with the first options.

Foreign Language Feature: Incendies (Alternate: In A Better World)
Documentary Feature: Inside Job (Alternate: Waste Land)
Animated Feature: Toy Story III (Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon)
I have a feeling Incendies is going to win, if only because most people who’ve seen the films admit that it’s terribly mawkish. I have that sort of little faith in the voters, although you’d think them having to watch the films in succession mean the best will win. I can’t be certain, Incendies just seems like a typical choice even if I want to say In A Better World. I’d sort of love Dogtooth to win, just because this guy here loves it – and it’ll probably make him happy. I’m sticking with Inside Job for documentary – just because.

Short Film (Animated): Day & Night (Alternate: Let’s Pollute)
Short Film (Documentary): Killing in the Name (Alternate: The Warriors of Qiugang)
Short Film (Live Action): The Confession (Alternate: God of Love)
I’m honestly stabbing in the dark here, and I sort of love it. I always do zero research for these categories and just choose based on name of film and directors. It’s always fun, but don’t take me seriously here. I have absolutely no authority.
                        
Well, Oscars are in about 18 hours or so. How was the season for you?

8 comments:

Dan O. said...

As much as I would kill for Nolan to win for screenplay, the fact remains the Academy has an unreasonable hard on for The King’s Speech so original screenplay will probably go to that movie rather Inception, despite it should win. Check out my list and opinions when you can!

TomS said...

Andrew,
It has been a great season and I have found myself more involved than I expected, thanks to writers like you who offer reasoned opinion and interesting alternate scenarios. I am steeling myself for a few personal disappointments, and a few big cheers, and compiling a list of moments I would like to see.

Brandon said...

Andrew, do you think (even though you'd hate to see it) that Steinfeld has a big chance?

I think that HBC could win but that Leo and Steinfeld and even Adams are rushing past her. If Adams wins I might wet myself and I can see it happening out of nowhere!

Dan O. said...

As much as I would kill for Nolan to win for screenplay, the fact remains the Academy has an unreasonable hard on for The King’s Speech so original screenplay will probably go to that movie rather Inception, despite it should win. Check out my list and opinions when you can!

RC said...

Nice job on your predictions - particularly foreign film which I NEVER get right!

Darren said...

I'm still ticked Nolan didn't get a directing nod, but I am pleased with several of the smaller wins. In particular, Trent Rezner's The Social Network soundtrack was one I wasn't expecting, but was my favourite in the category.

Luke said...

Well, it seems you've got your answer to how the Academy will take Alice in Wonderland's "let's barf visual effects on every frame" mentality - they ate that crap up. I'm a little bothered by the Art Direction trophy - and just how much of the costuming was real and not CGI? And your final thoughts - how are you feeling about the movie that you named the most anticipated FOREVER ago ended up winning Best Picture. I sort of credit you with calling that one well over a year ago. Well done sir!

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

dan well, the king's speech didn't exactly dominate, though it own the top prize

tom i'll head over to your site in a bit, now that's it's over and done with (until next year...yay?)

brandon i never really saw steinfeld happening, though. not enough love for true grit.

rc but i was way wrong too, but still i WAS just stabbing in the dark.

darren it was interesting how spread out the wins were: no film really dominated.

luke yeah, i had a backhand feeling about alice, but i kept thinking hmm, will they? won't they? well, they did. ah well. (and PLEASE don't spread that truth about me setting TKS up for a win over a year ago: i'll be mauled with hate-mail. ha ha.)