Monday, 24 January 2011

Oscar Talk (FINAL PREDICTIONS): Screenplay, Director & Picture

And, the final set of predictions are here. I just can’t help but feel blah about the whole thing so I’m hoping when the nominees do actually come out I’ll a semblance of interest – or a little more. So, here goes: the predictions on the top three categories.


Screenplays
I was a bit psyched about the writing categories a few months ago, because I was under this dumb delusion that some overlooked pieces (Rabbit Hole, Animal Kingdom, The Ghost Writer) would get some love here. That ship has sailed and it’s all looking very humdrum. The original screenplay is almost a representation of the films trying to edge out The Social Network in the top spot – which makes it look like The Kids Are All Right is hanging on for dear life. I really can’t see anything getting in here, even though Blue Valentine seems like the sort of original piece that would get some love here. Technically, I’d say Black Swan could be replaced here simply because the screenplay is easily its most unoriginal element – but that’s just personal projections, I know.

Predictions (alpha): Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech Alternates: Blue Valentine / Please Give / Get Low

The adapted side is a bit more interesting, though I’m not going to be dumb enough to expect my favourites to make it in. Though, there’s still a smidgen of a chance they could make it in on a surprise bid. Due to the rules of the AMPAS (for some weird reason) Toy Story III is eligible here instead of original screenplay. Hubbub for that one has dwindled significantly but I anticipate more love for that than The Town which I’m still not certain is going to get a sizeable bloc of votes.

Predictions (alpha): 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone Alternates: The Town / Rabbit Hole / The Ghost Writer


DIRECTOR
The banality continues with the directors, although I’d prefer this line-up than the Coen’s edging out Reilly – in fact, I’d prefer anyone in the current line-up to the Coen’s. And there doesn’t seem to be a chance of a nod for Choledenko or Granik.

Predictions (alpha): Aronofsky for Black Swan / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Nolan for Inception / Reilly for The Fighter Alternates: Coen’s for True Grit

And the final category. I’m predicting a snub for Winter’s Bone, which I think will be like Away From Her getting nods for screenplay and the acting, I don’t anticipate getting those key #1 votes to make it in (although, I don’t see The Town getting #1 votes either). It’s essentially an unexciting list, but I’m not expecting any surprises.

PICTURE
Predictions (alpha): 127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / The Town / True Grit / Toy Story III Alternates: Winter’s Bone / Get Low / Shutter Island

and of course in the animated section it all looks quite drab, but I've seen two animated films this year....
Predictions (alpha): How to Train Your Dragon / Toy Story III / Tangled Alternates (by probability): The Illusionist / Despicable Me

Other Final Predictions:
Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup
Sound, Original Song and Score
Visual Effects, Cinematography and Editing
Supporting Actors
Lead Actors

(So my predictions have The King's Speech topping the list with 12 nominees...we'll see how correct I am.)
    
So, it’s a few hours away – any final hopes for surprises? Will Shutter Island pull of an upset? Are you just blasé about the entire event? Who’s looking forward to hearing Mo’Nique enunciate beautifully?

1 comment:

Walter L. Hollmann said...

I'm looking forward to Mo'Nique, for sure!

I don't know if two Disney films will make it to Animated. I feel like the Disney contingent are where the Toy Story 3 fans are. I'm with you on Director and the screenplay categories...this year may turn out to be surprisingly predictable, but these are all worthy nominees. Well, OK, obviously everyone should want Rabbit Hole to get into Adapted Screenplay...but at the expense of what? 127 Hours? True Grit? Toy Story 3? Hm...