If Oscar prediction had a catchphrase it’d be “Nothing Personal: Just Prediction” and watching the trailer for a movie like The King’s Speech sort illuminates all the reasons I shouldn’t participate in Oscar prognostics. Not because The King’s Speech is the sort of movie I’d typically go crazy for. Take out HBC, Geoffrey Rush, Harvey Weinstein and Tom Hooper and it probably wouldn’t have made my top ten anticipated films of the year, but I’m easy like that. It’s getting buzz all-round, though; the sort of buzz that makes producers send out its FYC-ad campaigning “in all categories”. It’s the sort of all-round heavy-hitter that makes it the perfect candidate to boast a performance like Bonham Carter’s supporting queen who’s not at the centre of the story, but close. Of course, I’ve yet to actually see The King’s Speech. The thing is, right now at least, I don’t think she’s going to win the Oscar. If I were an Oscar voter (a guy dream) I’d be tired of having the winners in this category stuffed down my throat three months before the fact once, twice, three times in a row. And maybe it’s because I’m soooooooooooo in love with her, but HBC seems like the type of person who really won’t ever get the Oscar.
I hate to be contemplative, but it’s the perfect time for me play the most hopeless Oscar predicting game. If they didn’t nominate her for [insert film name] why would they nominate her for [insert film name]. But it’s way too easy to play it with HBC – I’m going to beat the dead horse and say until I see an Oscar in her hand if they didn’t even nominate her for te much feted Howards End (nomination wise at least) in a ridiculously weak year I’m not sure she’s headed for a win. Of course it’s silly for me to say that because “Oscar” is not a domineering old man, the members are ever-changing. But I already warned you at the beginning of the post, I shouldn’t be predicting Oscars – I take this too personally. I’d be lying if I didn’t pretend that the title cards were reading something just a little different as they flashed her name across the screen.
Really, though, you can’t predict Oscars like you would the stocks. The only thing about Oscar prediction to remember is that anything can happen, really. So I’ll just ignore that the last The King’s Speech seems to be all too familiar territory like The Madness of King George (it’s even mentioned in the film’s trailer) and Helen Mirren lost her Oscar bid in the role that’s equivalent to HBC’s Elizabeth. Other than
the office betting pools I’m not sure that there’s any visceral pleasure to be gained from (accurately) predicting the Oscars. And more often than not the people predicting get annoyed when the show becomes too predictable, which is just a never ending mindf***. This space isn’t dedicated to Oscar forecasting, although I’m sure I’ll get bitten by the bug and do one of the scores of predictions that will flood the internet in the week leading up to January 25th.
2007 and 2003 and won in 1992, 1997 and 1999 - will this finally be her year? Who knows?