Sunday, 22 February 2009

MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE OSCARS

ART DIRECTION
This is where I predict that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will most likely take home the award. It is the deserving winner here, although The Dark Knight could become a spoiler. The Duchess could prove a threat, but the movie didn’t catch on enough, although Sweeney Todd won here last year with only one other nomination. Anyway, I say The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which is my favourite, so there.

COSTUME DESIGN
This is a tough category for me. I rule out Milk just because I don’t think it can win here. Revolutionary Road has beautiful costumes, but I think they’re too subtle for the Academy. Australia has great costumes, and I won’t be surprised if it wins, but the Catherine Martin already has an Oscar. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is my pick to win, just like Atonement but I think it will end up losing out to the elaborate costumes of The Duchess, which isn’t wholly undeserved.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
This is an equally difficult category to predict. As much as I liked Changeling, I’ll rule that out from having an actual chance. I don’t think The Dark Knight is going to be a big threat as persons expect it to be here, but I could be wrong. That leaves the three best picture finalists. Slumdog Millionaire is the undisputable frontrunner in every category but I don’t think it deserves the nods, especially here. The Reader deserves a nod, but I don’t think it will win… which leaves The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which I want to win, but I don’t think it will. If I have to pick a winner I’ll say it will probably be Slumdog Millionaire with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button as an alternate.

FILM EDITING
This is the best picture lineup with an undeserved snub for The Reader in place of The Dark Knight. For some reason I feel whoever wins here will NOT win the Best Picture award. I don’t know why but I feel that The Dark Knight will win here as a makeup for the snub. I suppose that Slumdog Millionaire is a threat here, which annoys me. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is my pick followed closely by Frost/Nixon which is a bit underrated in terms of technical achievements.

MAKEUP
Hellboy is too cartoonish and The Dark Knight was not THAT innovative, so I predict that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button deserves to and WILL win.

ORIGINAL SCORE
With the upset at the Guild called Alexandre Desplat I am more confident in my favourite and current prediction of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for the prize. Of course Slumdog Millionaire cannot be counted out just yet. I don’t think WALL-E will be able to gain any traction here, and the other two films are just happy to be here.




ORIGINAL SONG
This is my least favourite category. Hopefully the best song here from WALL-E will be able to upset the fact that Slumdog Millionaire has 2/3 of the categories here. Jai Ho could win, though.

SOUND MIXING
Wanted cannot win here, and that’s the only thing I can bet on. I think WALL-E should win, but really Slumdog Millionaire could sweep… I hope not. As good as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is, AMPAS does not go for subtlety here which probably means that The Dark Knight will win.

SOUND EDITING
I’d like Wanted to win here, but I doubt it could. So once again I pick WALL-E with The Dark Knight as a spoiler.

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The end.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk is the most prestigious of the nominees and it won the WGA, which makes it a serious threat. Based on good writing I think In Bruges could become an upset, and I wouldn’t mind. I don’t think Happy-Go Lucky is a good enough example of Mike Leigh’s talent so I don’t see it winning. Frozen River is good, but I don’t think it will win. It’s a bit like the nomination for Away From Her last year, a prize in itself.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire is the favourite here, although the screenplay is probably the weakest link of the movie. If it wins it will be a travesty since all of the four films are better, but I’ll predict even though I’m not decided. Frost/Nixon is good as is Doubt, the former has a better screenplay but I don’t think either will win. I think The Reader has huge upset potential and I’d love if it happens. Of course you can guess my favourite to win it is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and I have not given up hope.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
What to do? What to do? My favourite to win is a tie between the luminous Penelope Cruz and the underappreciated Taraji P. Henson. I don’t want Cruz to win just because everyone else is predicting it, but she’s my prediction and I don’t mind if she wins. Third in my preference is Tomei, whom I love; closely followed by Adams who I also love. Davis is fifth for me, sorry but I just don’t get the hype. But in terms of predictions she is the alternate to Cruz and I won’t be surprised if she wins. Hopefully that won’t happen.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
So Heath Ledger is probably going to win this. He’s third in my preference though, behind Hoffman and Shannon. Then there’s Downey who could upset, and I wouldn’t mind… and then there’s Brolin.

LEAD ACTRESS
Winslet is my pick for will win and should win. No analysis of the category, I suppose Streep could upset, but I sincerely doubt.

LEAD ACTOR
I predict Langella to upset. I really do. This seems like such a stupid prediction, and it probably is, but call it blind faith – and a belief that he was the best of the five. He’s also my favourite of the five followed by Penn and Pitt, then Rourke and then Jenkins.

PICTURE & DIRECTOR
I think that there will be a split between the two directors and obviously one of them will be going to Slumdog Millionaire. So I predict Danny Boyle to win best director and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button to win best picture. I’d love to see either Fincher or Daldry take home best director though.

Sound off below.

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